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Topic: Yen recovery continues on lower US yields; markets on edge over Pelosi |
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geemong
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Yen recovery continues on lower US yields; markets on edge over Pelosi The dollar continued its decline on Tuesday (Aug 2), falling to its lowest in two months against the recovering Japanese yen and losing ground on other peers, as investors continued to position for a less aggressive pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
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Jitters about the impact of an impending visit to Taiwan by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi were also driving some safe-haven flows to the yen, while weighing on other Asian currencies.
The greenback fell as low as 130.595 yen in early trading, its lowest since Jun 6, and was last down 0.55 per cent, leaving it down 4 per cent in the past four sessions.
"It's the same old story with the yen being very sensitive to the gap between US and Japanese government bond yields. Of course, Japanese ones aren't moving because of Japan's yield curve control policy, but US yields have dropped a lot," said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Markets Hong Kong
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.53 per cent, its lowest since April, in early trade on Tuesday. Investors are beginning to position themselves for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pivot away from raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation and towards worrying more about an economic slowdown.
Wong, who said this repricing of expectations for Fed rate hikes was probably overdone, added that somewhat lower energy prices were also helping the yen, since Japan was a net importer of energy. The currency was also benefiting from some safe-haven flows due to worries about Pelosi's visit.
China's offshore yuan touched 6.7957 per dollar on Tuesday, its weakest since mid-May. Wong attributed this partly to the tensions around Pelosi's visit as well as poor economic data from China over the weekend.
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